What are our president’s current approval ratings, you may be asking. Not too good when left out of context. Currently he stands at 43% approve while 54% disapprove of his performance. Not too good at first glance. The gap in approval is more than 10 percentage points. However, when looking at the presidents of the past, a different story emerges.
The 2020 election season is underway, and what is all on the forefront of our minds is whether 2016 underdog, Donald Trump, has any shot at winning his reelection campaign. After a swath of anti-Trump media coverage from left-wing outlets, it leaves little surprise that many in the mainstream media are underplaying the very realistic chances of him pulling off a second historic upset.
At this time in prior presidents tenure, their approval rating stood on similar levels of support. Obama, who won reelection, was in the low 40’s. G W Bush, who also won his bid, rode the popularity of the war on terror to an approval rating of above 70%. Sudden jumps are possible at anytime under random circumstances. There is no reason to assume Trump would be immune to a random, yet unifying event to draw in more support. Bill Clinton was in the low 40’s. H W Bush, who lost his reelection bid, partially due to Ross Perot, hit 80%. A lot can happen in the time between now and November of 2020. Reagan was in the upper 30’s, yet he also won two terms. Carter, who was a single term president, hit 30%, Ford, who never won an election was around 50%. Nixon hit 50% with LBJ in the mid-60’s. JFK, Eisenhower, and Truman were all about or over 60%.
What’s my point? Provided Trump maintains a steady 40+% approval rating, strong polling in swing states, and goes up against another awful opponent like Hillary Clinton, he is on track for a second term. Currently, he is struggling with more disapproval than approval in most swing states. He does maintain a 40+% approval rating in those areas though. That is his biggest hurdle. The voters don’t have to like him, but they do have to prefer him to his opponent. When the top three polling democrats are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris, that may not be too hard. Biden is very popular, but the other two are near admitted socialists.
Provided no major scandals erupt, and the democratic party continuous its recent moves further and further left, there is reason to assume Trump is within reach of securing a second term.